The persistently wet conditions in the prior few months is starting to have an impact on LIFFE wheat prices. The new crop spread (🇬🇧 LIFFE / 🇪🇺 MATIF) has narrowed by around £5/t in the last 10 days alone, as the market appears to be pricing in a smaller UK wheat crop. It is still likely that the UK will be a net exporter in 2021, requiring the price spread to remain negative, but improved spring conditions will be crucial. If we do become a net importer again, then this spread would likely turn positive (£+15 from current price). For the UK to become a net importer, our wheat domestic production should reach 13.5Mt or lower.