Market Alerts
- 24 May 2022
- 6:35
ODA Market Alert: British 🇬🇧 warships could be sent in to protect freighters carrying crucial Ukrainian grain and break Putin’s blockade of Ukrainian 🇺🇦 ports.
According to the press, Britain, NATO and other nations such as Egypt could create a 'protective' corridor to Odessa. Russians have not yet reacted to this project that could create the context for a direct confrontation between NATO and Russia. If this was to take place, then it could well be a very bearish news for world grain and oilseed prices. So let's remain cautious but ready to act in the very short term. ODA will keep you informed in due course.
- 20 May 2022
- 14:08
ODA Market Alert: FranceAgriMer have reported a second straight week of sharp declines for the French 🇫🇷 soft wheat crop.
Dry and hot weather in France during May is taking yield forecasts down. A similar situation is taking place in Germany and Poland. For this week, French wheat ratings are down from 82% to 73% good/excellent. Wheat prices have reversed for the last few days as high price levels are likely to have rationed off demand for the near-term, BUT markets could rebound soon.
- 19 May 2022
- 12:52
ODA Market Alert: Indonesia 🇮🇩 lifts palm oil Export ban in relief to global veg oil markets.
Indonesia, the world’s biggest shipper of edible oils, lifted a ban on palm oil exports in a move that will bring relief to the global market after the war in Ukraine choked off critical supplies. Soybean oil, a substitute of palm, fell as much as 1.6% after Indonesia’s announcement. OSR prices are down €20 and are now back close to the €800 level.
- 19 May 2022
- 12:45
ODA Market Alert: Moscow 🇷🇺 ready to open Ukrainian 🇺🇦 ports IF sanctions are lifted.
Moscow said on Thursday that sanctions on Russia would have to be reviewed if it were to heed a U.N. appeal to open access to Ukraine's Black Sea ports so that grain could be exported. Even if the scenario is unlikely to happen on the very short term, it highlights that negotiations are indeed taking place to resume Ukrainian seaport exports. Prices are reacting negatively to the news this morning. Markets will remain very sensitive to the subject and it needs to be considered as a major downside risk for grain and oilseed prices!
- 16 May 2022
- 7:40
ODA Market Alert: Bullish news take grain prices to new record highs.
An avalanche of supportive news during the last few days have and will continue to support wheat and barley prices this week: - In France 🇫🇷 the expected storms did not bring the expected rain. The near term forecast is for dry and hot (above 30°C) weather. Winter crops and spring barley will continue to suffer! - India 🇮🇳 banned wheat exports. Some Asian traders now anticipate a 90MT production and consider India will need to import 4MT to balance the domestic consumption. - The USDA report published what we consider very optimistic production forecast for Brazilian 🇧🇷 corn and Canadian 🇨🇦 wheat. Some further downgrading can be expected in a context of already very tight stocks. All in all, prices should remain supportive. We hold for now.
- 14 May 2022
- 11:58
ODA Market Alert: India 🇮🇳 bans wheat exports as heat wave hurts crop.
India banned wheat exports on Saturday, just days after saying it was targeting record shipments this year. Before the ban, India had aimed to ship a record 10 MT to partially replace Ukrainian supplies. They had already exported a record 1.4MT in April. The ban could push global wheat prices to new peaks next week.
- 13 May 2022
- 6:54
ODA Market Alert : Following a bullish USDA 🇺🇸 report prices should continue to climb strongly today.
2022/23 wheat ending stocks are now seen at only 267MT, a 15% drop vs 2021/22, the lowest since 2006. The US quality wheat (HRW) is also a major concern with a potential production of 590Mbu vs 685Mbu last year (-14%). In that context, Canadian wheat production is seen record, although it is just being drilled now. For the corn, the major event came from a 2.5% drop for the US yields (from 181 to 177bu/a). Also the USDA kept the Brazilian production at 116MT when we believe it will be below 110MT. Finally, they see the US soya crop at 124MT to be compared with 138MT last year (-10%). Supplies are on the downside and weather risks are still on. Buoyant!
- 9 May 2022
- 12:27
ODA Market Alert: Ukrainian 🇺🇦 spring plantings run 27% behind 2021.
Ukraine’s Ag Minister said 7Mha of spring grain planting is completed or 27% less than the same period in 2021. This is not a surprise as Ukrainian tractors cannot work at night because of the ongoing martial law. As such, the planting season will take at least one more month. The question remains on their ability to store and most importantly to export the grains. So far in April, the country managed to export 1Mt, about a fifth of their usual capacity.
Weekly market editorial View all
Have grain prices reached their peak?
What an amazing week for wheat prices! Record levels were reached on Monday followed by a 5% drop.  Supplies are being downgraded all over the globe but prices might have got to a level where demand is seriously being rationed. Let’s review the situation…
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RegisterLiffe Feed Wheat 
| unk1 | Contract | Month | Last | unk2 | unk3 | Chg | Open | High | Low | Volume | OpenInt | Exchange | Date | Time | Title | File |
| t-ice | WHEAT | Jul '22 | 331.20s | 331.20 | s | -5.00 | 331.20 | 331.20 | 331.20 | ICE | 05/24/22 | 16:38:02 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | WHEAT | Nov '22 | 327.50s | 327.50 | s | -5.00 | 335.00 | 339.00 | 327.50 | 666 | 9346 | ICE | 05/24/22 | 12:00:00 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
| t-ice | WHEAT | Jan '23 | 330.30s | 330.30 | s | -5.00 | 330.30 | 330.30 | 330.30 | ICE | 05/24/22 | 16:38:02 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | WHEAT | Mar '23 | 332.05s | 332.05 | s | -5.00 | 332.05 | 332.05 | 332.05 | ICE | 05/24/22 | 16:38:02 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | WHEAT | May '23 | 333.65s | 333.65 | s | -5.00 | 345.00 | 345.00 | 339.00 | 250 | 594 | ICE | 05/24/22 | 12:00:00 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
| t-ice | WHEAT | Jul '23 | 307.45s | 307.45 | s | -0.50 | 307.45 | 307.45 | 307.45 | ICE | 05/24/22 | 16:38:02 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | WHEAT | Nov '23 | 276.65s | 276.65 | s | 4.00 | 278.00 | 280.00 | 277.00 | 195 | 775 | ICE | 05/24/22 | 12:00:00 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
| t-ice | WHEAT | Jan '24 | 277.60s | 277.60 | s | 4.00 | 277.60 | 277.60 | 277.60 | ICE | 05/24/22 | 12:00:00 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | WHEAT | Mar '24 | 279.10s | 279.10 | s | 4.00 | 279.10 | 279.10 | 279.10 | ICE | 05/24/22 | 16:38:02 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | WHEAT | May '24 | 280.70s | 280.70 | s | -55.80 | 280.70 | 280.70 | 280.70 | ICE | 05/24/22 | 16:38:02 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
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