Market Alerts
- 9 August 2022
- 7:47
ODA Market Alert: US 🇺🇸 crop conditions down, prices up.
The Western part of of the major growing area for corn, soya and the spring wheat area are too hot and dry. As a result, US crop conditions, published every Monday night, have surprised the market on the downside: - US spring wheat conditions 64% G2E, well below estimates of 70%. - US corn crop conditions 58% G2E, below estimates of 60%, down from 61% ww and down from 64% yy. - US soy crop conditions 59% G2E, as expected, down from 60%. US prices are up 1 to 2%. EU markets should also react positively this morning.
- 8 August 2022
- 11:59
ODA Market Alert: Russian 🇷🇺 crop seen now at 95MT!
Russian agriculture consultancy IKAR said on Monday that it had raised its forecast for Russia's 2022 wheat crop to 95 MT from a previously expected 90.5 MT, mainly due to higher yields in the Central and Volga regions. However, the question remains on the ability for Russia to export the nearly 50MT surplus in a war and sanctions context. Prices react on the downside, wheat opened -1.5% this morning on MATIF.
- 5 August 2022
- 13:42
ODA Market Alert: Inspectors in Turkey 🇹🇷 have successfully checked the 1st ship heading to load Ukrainian 🇺🇦 grain!
Turkey reported today the successful inspection of an empty ship heading for the Ukrainian port of Chornomorsk. This news is what the market was expecting and prices are heading down despite strong and supportive fundamentals. More to come on this ongoing corridor story next week.
- 5 August 2022
- 11:11
ODA Market Alert: 3 more ships have left Ukrainian 🇺🇦 ports today.
It is a good start but it does not come as a surprise as we expect the 17 ships stuck in Ukraine to be leaving the ports in the coming week. These 3 vessels are loaded with maize sold to UK (13kt), Ireland (33kt) and Turkey (12kt). The real question is what is next? Who is going to take the risk to send new ships in a war zone? This will be the real game changer for world supplies. For now traders tell us they are not willing to take this risk. We will keep you posted as we learn more.
- 2 August 2022
- 12:15
ODA Market Alert: Why are prices going down since Monday, despite supportive fundamentals?
Last week prices rebounded strongly on rising weather risks in the US and EU and very strong demand for European grains. This week, markets are trading significantly lower. This sudden weakness comes from Chicago Futures where funds are selling the current US-Chinese tensions. They indeed consider that a commercial conflict could impact US ag. commodity exports. We will develop our market view in the next Weekly publication. In short: we believe prices could rebound in August and September amid great uncertainty on the Ukrainian exports, adverse weather and potential very poor winter plantings in Ukraine (and possibly EU too if August is as dry as July). So time to hold for sellers and to increase feed coverage for buyers.
- 1 August 2022
- 7:21
ODA Market Alert: First grain ship has left Ukraine 🇺🇦 from Odesa 8.17 am local time, this morning.
The Sierra Leone-flagged ship Razoni, which is loaded with corn, will head to Lebanon with 26kt of corn. He will make a stop in Turkey for inspection. It is a very important step for the corridor implementation and it will be scrutinized. However, traders are still waiting for ships to enter the Ukrainian ports as for now it is only about ships going out!
- 29 July 2022
- 7:42
ODA Market Alert: Black Sea 🇺🇦 corridor, at what cost?
The cost of insurance for ships with Ukrainian grain will increase hundreds of times. Lloyd's of London and other brokers are preparing to insure grain shipments from Ukraine. Brokers should announce individual programs in the coming days. Premiums for entering the vast Black Sea area have increased dramatically, to 5% of a ship's cost, up from 0.025% before the invasion. Brokers have already shown interest in insuring vessels passing through the grain corridor. However, they are ready to do this only on the condition that international naval escorts will be present and a clear strategy for combating sea mines will be organized. This is to be considered as a bullish element as it will affect Black Sea origins compe
- 25 July 2022
- 14:10
ODA Market Alert: Latest on the Ukrainian 🇺🇦 corridor.
The agreement will allow Ukraine to export from 3 different ports in the Odesa region. They account for 50% of the usual sea port capacity. We can thus expect the country capacity to increase to 5MT per month, enough to export the 60MT export surplus within 12 months. The most optimistic forecast expect the first shipment to move from the ports within the next 2 weeks. Cargoes could be smaller than usual, around 10kt instead of the usual 50 to 60kt panamax. Russia has stated again this morning that they will not intentionally disrupt the process. Can we trust them? Only time will tell. For now a risk premium is being added to prices until further positive or negative news. So far, Ukraine has only exported 1Mt in July, far from enough to relieve the domestic market.
Weekly market editorial View all
MARKETS IN THEIR STARTING-BLOCKS?
Our market is currently facing too many unknows. Traders hesitate. Daily moves are massive but weekly changes remain very narrow. This illustrates how nervous traders are. In fact, the market is in a kind of “waiting room”. Traders are hesitating between some clearly identified bullish elements and a potential solution to Black Sea exports. In a very tight stock context, any supply disruption will trigger very strong market reactions. So, let’s get ready for a buoyant August and September!
Read moreEvents & Training
INVITATION TO OUR MONTHLY GRAIN & OILSEED MARKETS ONLINE PRESENTATION.
UNDERSTAND HOW THE BLACK SEA 🇺🇦 SITUATION COULD IMPACT OUR UK MARKETS.
We will review 2022 & 2023 price trends.
RegisterLiffe Feed Wheat 
| unk1 | Contract | Month | Last | unk2 | unk3 | Chg | Open | High | Low | Volume | OpenInt | Exchange | Date | Time | Title | File |
| t-ice | WHEAT | Nov '22 | 271.35s | 271.35 | s | -1.45 | 271.00 | 272.00 | 270.00 | 456 | 8320 | ICE | 08/12/22 | 12:00:00 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
| t-ice | WHEAT | Jan '23 | 274.30s | 274.30 | s | -1.55 | 274.30 | 274.30 | 274.30 | ICE | 08/12/22 | 16:34:17 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | WHEAT | Mar '23 | 275.20s | 275.20 | s | -1.65 | 275.20 | 275.20 | 275.20 | ICE | 08/12/22 | 16:34:17 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | WHEAT | May '23 | 276.10s | 276.10 | s | -1.70 | 275.00 | 276.50 | 275.00 | 76 | 4094 | ICE | 08/12/22 | 12:00:00 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
| t-ice | WHEAT | Jul '23 | 263.05s | 263.05 | s | -1.70 | 263.05 | 263.05 | 263.05 | ICE | 08/12/22 | 16:34:17 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | WHEAT | Nov '23 | 245.60s | 245.60 | s | -1.70 | 246.50 | 246.50 | 246.50 | 2 | 1855 | ICE | 08/12/22 | 12:00:00 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
| t-ice | WHEAT | Jan '24 | 249.60s | 249.60 | s | -1.70 | 249.60 | 249.60 | 249.60 | ICE | 08/12/22 | 16:34:17 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | WHEAT | Mar '24 | 251.60s | 251.60 | s | -1.70 | 251.60 | 251.60 | 251.60 | ICE | 08/12/22 | 16:34:17 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | WHEAT | May '24 | 253.60s | 253.60 | s | -1.70 | 253.60 | 253.60 | 253.60 | ICE | 08/12/22 | 16:34:17 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | WHEAT | Nov '24 | 223.60s | 223.60 | s | -1.70 | 223.60 | 223.60 | 223.60 | ICE | 08/12/22 | 16:34:17 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
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