Market Alerts
- 12 January 2022
- 17:29
ODA Market Alert: USDA slash S.American soybean production outlook. World wheat stocks rise marginally.
In their January crop update, USDA officials cut Brazilian ๐ง๐ท and Argentinian ๐ฆ๐ท corn and soybean production, by a combined 3.5Mt and 8Mt respectively, reflecting very poor growing conditions to date. Further cuts are anticipated in subsequent reports as both continue to struggle with heatwave conditions and only minimal rainfall in the outlook. World stocks for corn and soybeans were reduced accordingly, although world wheat stocks added 2Mt. Relatively higher wheat prices compared to feed grains are expected to reduce global feed use. Overall, we consider this a bearish wheat, slightly bullish corn, but bullish oilseeds. However traders had anticipated theses changes. So markets are unreactive. A pretty neutral report overall.
- 10 January 2022
- 11:18
๐ข๐๐ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐๐น๐ฒ๐ฟ๐: Another volatile week expected, ahead of Wednesday’s USDA ๐บ๐ธ report due to be published at 5pm.
January's USDA report is an important one as it will communicate the final US acreage and yields for the 2021 harvest. Traders will also be expecting lower production forecast for South American ๐ง๐ท ๐ฆ๐ท corn and soya but higher production figures for Australian ๐ฆ๐บ and Argentinian ๐ฆ๐ท wheat. For the past 2 weeks, traders have been anticipating and pricing these figures, taking corn and soya prices up while wheat markets are down. Great volatility expected again!
- 7 January 2022
- 9:06
Wheat prices are down with very low volume traded.
World and LIFFE wheat futures are trading at their lowest level since October, and 12% below the November high. We do not see any fundamental reason except that what goes up, eventually goes down. Traders seem to be lacking fresh news and markets are often very quiet at this time of the year. We believe that the short-term downside is limited and a rebound is possible. In the longer-term, prices will reflect the 2022 production potential. For now, that it is looking much more promising than the disastrous 2021 wheat harvest!
- 28 December 2021
- 9:03
As often at this time of the year, South American weather ๐ฆ๐ท ๐ง๐ท is taking the lead on ag. markets.
Floods in the North of Brazil, drought in the South of Brazil and Argentina are starting to worry traders. La Nina seems to be affecting, again, the South American corn and soya production potentials. During the past week, soya is up 10%, corn is up 5% and wheat is following the trend. In a very tight stock context, weather market in this part of the world should keep on impacting our European markets during the next couple of months. Volatile and buoyant!
- 17 December 2021
- 16:08
Bullish news coming from China, Argentina and Russia.
Grain and oilseed prices are rebounding today. Russia ๐ท๐บ confirmed they will cut wheat export quota to 8 Mt (from 9 Mt initially). Chinese ๐จ๐ณ importers have made fresh purchases of French wheat and barley this week following a slide in prices, with around 10 large vessels thought to have been booked. And Argentina's ๐ฆ๐ท government established a system on Friday to control export volumes of corn and wheat, a move aimed at preventing domestic shortages of the grains and to tamp down food prices amid swirling inflation. All bullish new elements to keep on supporting our old crop markets.
- 15 December 2021
- 15:53
ODA Market Alert: Russia ๐ท๐บ are considering further curbs on wheat exports, due to persistent inflation.
Russian officials are in discussions to lower their Feb-June wheat export quota, from 9Mt, to perhaps 8Mt. The move, which could be formally announced next Wednesday, is in response to persistently high domestic food price inflation and the desire to retain as much wheat supply domestically as possible. This, at a time when the current pace (not volume) of wheat exports are already trailing last year by 37.5%, largely due to the variable export tax system currently in operation. Wheat markets will consider this a bullish impulse for prices which will provide another element lifting price volatility in pre and post Christmas trading. To watch closely.
- 13 December 2021
- 14:14
ODA Market Alert: China ๐จ๐ณ returns to market seeking large grain volumes.
Traders report that China has made large purchases of feed grains from Ukraine ๐บ๐ฆ, France ๐ซ๐ท, and Australia ๐ฆ๐บ in the past week or two. French wheat purchases have totalled up to 600k tonnes, for Jan-March delivery. For barley, a huge 14 vessels were reportedly bought (+/-840Kt), from both France and Ukraine combined and a further ten or more cargoes of corn were sourced from Ukraine (perhaps 1Mt). Australian feed wheat supplies are also in strong demand, following huge supplies here, at competitive prices. If China continues to regularly make these large purchases, then grain markets will find ongoing support ahead.
- 9 December 2021
- 18:18
ODA Market Alert: USDA ๐บ๐ธ see higher global wheat production and ending stocks. Little reaction from wheat markets.
As expected, USDA officials modestly lifted their 2021 world ๐ wheat production forecasts and increased global wheat ending stock levels. CBOT is 12c/bu lower on the data, MATIF is down โฌ3 and LIFFE is down ยฃ3. World wheat stocks were also raised, but remain at their lowest level in 5 years. We consider this report as slightly bearish for global wheat and corn prices, but, perhaps slightly bullish for the oilseeds sector. No major changes expected.
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WHATโS NEXT FOR OUR PRICES?
For the last month the trend has been supportive for oilseeds and corn while wheat markets have been drifting down. So, whatโs next?
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| unk1 | Contract | Month | Last | unk2 | unk3 | Chg | Open | High | Low | Volume | OpenInt | Exchange | Date | Time | Title | File |
| t-ice | WHEAT | Jan '22 | 207.35s | 207.35 | s | 1.00 | 207.35 | 207.35 | 207.35 | ICE | 01/17/22 | 17:36:09 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | WHEAT | Mar '22 | 209.85s | 209.85 | s | 1.00 | 209.85 | 209.85 | 209.85 | 1 | ICE | 01/17/22 | 17:36:09 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |
| t-ice | WHEAT | May '22 | 211.75s | 211.75 | s | 1.00 | 210.50 | 212.00 | 210.00 | 47 | 6137 | ICE | 01/17/22 | 13:00:00 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
| t-ice | WHEAT | Jul '22 | 204.60s | 204.60 | s | 1.05 | 204.60 | 204.60 | 204.60 | ICE | 01/17/22 | 17:36:09 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | WHEAT | Nov '22 | 192.20s | 192.20 | s | 1.15 | 191.00 | 192.00 | 190.50 | 85 | 6577 | ICE | 01/17/22 | 13:00:00 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
| t-ice | WHEAT | Jan '23 | 192.95s | 192.95 | s | 1.15 | 192.95 | 192.95 | 192.95 | ICE | 01/17/22 | 17:36:09 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | WHEAT | Mar '23 | 193.25s | 193.25 | s | 1.15 | 193.25 | 193.25 | 193.25 | ICE | 01/17/22 | 17:36:09 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | WHEAT | May '23 | 194.55s | 194.55 | s | 1.15 | 194.55 | 194.55 | 194.55 | 4 | ICE | 01/17/22 | 17:36:09 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |
| t-ice | WHEAT | Jul '23 | 191.30s | 191.30 | s | 1.15 | 191.30 | 191.30 | 191.30 | ICE | 01/17/22 | 17:36:09 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | WHEAT | Nov '23 | 182.55s | 182.55 | s | 1.15 | 182.55 | 182.55 | 182.55 | 79 | ICE | 01/17/22 | 17:36:09 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
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