Market Alerts
- 3 September 2024
- 16:41
Dry start for the Russian 🇷🇺 winter wheat planting season.
The Russian winter wheat planting season starts in August and ends at the end of September. It has been very dry this season and there is still no rain in the radar. September/October precipitations in this part of the Black Sea (including a large part of Ukraine) will be something markets will keep an eye on.
- 30 August 2024
- 6:09
Adverse Black Sea 🇺🇦🇷🇺 weather conditions for spring crops.
Wheat in Siberia and North Kazakhstan needs dry weather as it is ready for harvest. They are having very wet conditions. Corn, soya and SF in Western Russia and Ukraine need rains, they are having very hot and dry conditions. Weather conditions are clearly not favorable for Black Sea crops. It is one of the elements of support for prices to rebound.
- 8 August 2024
- 10:42
Rapeseed 🇪🇺 prices recover from the recent 10% drop.
Rapeseed prices rebounded well on the €450 long-term support. OSR prices are very sensitive to energy markets. Last week, crude oil lost 14% in just 3 days amid recession talks. They recovered 6% already from recent lows and rapeseed prices are following the trend. We continue to consider that $70/brl is a very strong floor for crude oil. Indeed, the OPEC made it very clear that they would cut their production is prices were to reach this level. Current prices are now back above $75. Rapeseed prices will probably continue to trade between €450 and €500. The high of the range is a selling target, equivalent to £400/T ex-farm.
- 24 July 2024
- 8:18
Russian 🇷🇺 harvest moving very fast but wheat yields are roughly 10% lower yoy.
The Russian grain harvest is moving much faster than last year. Farmers have already harvested 13.7Mha compared to 5.5Mha a year earlier. The gross wheat harvest is estimated at 40.7MT, which is 26.2MT more than last year. Wheat has already been harvested from 11.4Mha versus 3.7Mha at the same period last year! Average wheat yields are down 10%, from 3.9T/HA in 2023 to 3.5T/HA now. With more than half of the wheat harvested, we can confirm that the production will be down by 8 to 9MT. Quality seems to be also poorer. However, the fast harvest has triggered more pressure on prices at this early stage of the season.
- 12 July 2024
- 19:37
US 🇺🇸 wheat back on the world trade competition?
One of the main story for the wheat market this season is the resurgence of US exports in the world trade. Indeed, the US will produce the highest crop in 7 years and some 5MT more than last year. This surplus will have to reach new destinations such as North Africa, where we have not seen US competition for a while! The US wheat crop size is thus bearish for our markets too!
- 4 July 2024
- 11:39
Very wet conditions in Europe 🇪🇺 as winter crops are ready for harvest.
The very first harvest results are disappointing in France, Poland, Germany, Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia especially for OSR and winter barley. Wheat is now getting ready for harvest but very wet conditions are in the forecast for next week. At this stage, we thus confirm our pessimistic view on EU yields and qualities and we consider that prices could react positively. They already did for OSR. Wheat could follow as well as malting and milling premiums.
- 3 July 2024
- 13:52
Sovecon RAISED their 2024 Russia 🇷🇺 wheat forecast to from 80.7MT to 84.1MT.
We were hearing better than expected yields in the South of Russia, ranging from 2T/HA (as expected) to 6T/HA (above expectation). As a result, a reliable analyst raised by 3.5MT their wheat production. It would still be 10MT down yoy. Russian wheat prices have recently dipped below other origins again, as hot weather speeds up harvest there and traders compete with rival exporters from Ukraine, Bulgaria and Romania. French wheat is trading some $15/T above these origins, capping any MATIF rebound attempt as here in the EU, production could well be very disappointing. Not the end of the wheat story yet!
- 15 June 2024
- 11:32
Why is UK 🇬🇧 feed barley price so discounted to feed wheat?
New crop feed barley prices are trading at a -£35 discount to feed wheat, some £20 below the historical spread. This is due to a domestic situation, very simple to explain. On one side, the UK will need to import large volumes of wheat in 2024/25 to compensate our lower expected production. As such, UK wheat prices have to remain elevated to attract imports. That is the reason why LIFFE should be trading at parity or above MATIF. On the other side, the UK will remain a net exporter of feed barley. As such, UK barley prices have to remain low enough to be competitive on the export market, especially for Spain & Portugal. This is the reason why feed barley will remain discounted to feed wheat all along the season.
Weekly market editorial View all
WEATHER RISKS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE, SO ARE PRICES…
World grain prices have rebounded well from their end of August lows. Prices are slowly but surely moving up. Our market story is developing slightly earlier than expected, fueled by unexpected weather related planting risks in Brazil and Russia. We therefore remain positive for the short-term but let’s be careful with weather markets…!
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CAN PRICES MOVE HIGHER?
ON ZOOM, FOR UK FARMERS
🇬🇧
RegisterLiffe Feed Wheat 
| unk1 | Contract | Month | Last | unk2 | unk3 | Chg | Open | High | Low | Volume | OpenInt | Exchange | Date | Time | Title | File |
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Nov '24 | 186.05s | 186.05 | s | +1.75 | 186.80 | 188.00 | 185.20 | 291 | 4956 | ICE | 13/09/2024 | 18:15:30 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Jan '25 | 190.55s | 190.55 | s | +1.80 | N/A | 190.55 | ICE | 13/09/2024 | 18:15:30 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |||
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Mar '25 | 195.00s | 195.00 | s | +1.80 | N/A | 195.00 | ICE | 13/09/2024 | 18:15:30 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |||
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | May '25 | 199.50s | 199.50 | s | +1.80 | 199.00 | 200.25 | 198.95 | 158 | 4303 | ICE | 13/09/2024 | 18:15:30 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Jul '25 | 204.10s | 204.10 | s | +3.10 | N/A | 204.10 | ICE | 13/09/2024 | 18:15:30 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |||
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Nov '25 | 198.10s | 198.10 | s | +4.05 | 196.00 | 198.10 | 196.00 | 35 | 881 | ICE | 13/09/2024 | 18:15:30 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Jan '26 | 200.80s | 200.80 | s | +4.05 | N/A | 200.80 | ICE | 13/09/2024 | 18:15:30 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |||
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Mar '26 | 203.50s | 203.50 | s | +4.05 | N/A | 203.50 | ICE | 13/09/2024 | 18:15:30 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
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