Market Alerts
- 11 October 2024
- 10:11
Markets in a wait and see position ahead of today’s USDA 🇺🇸 report and Russian 🇷🇺 potential export restrictions.
Markets are quietly up this morning. Traders are nervous as the USDA will disclose the monthly WASDE report tonight at 5 pm UK time. But another very important matter will catch market’s attention today. Russian government is meeting with exporters to discuss possible restrictions during the 2nd half of the season. Will they apply min prices, quotas, new phytosanitary rules? We shall expect a volatile day today!
- 4 October 2024
- 12:04
Record-breaking rainfall for many UK 🇬🇧 farms this September.
It has been the wettest September on record for most of the Central and Southern very productive counties in England. Seven English counties, Bedfordshire (182.7mm), Berkshire (172.1mm), Buckinghamshire (176mm), Gloucestershire (212.2mm), Northamptonshire (171.3mm), Oxfordshire (185.2mm) and Wiltshire (196.5mm), all recorded more than three times (300%) their average September rainfall. Our clients are reporting unprecedented wet conditions, preventing early planting. The weather forecast remains variable and planting will definitively be delayed. Even if there is still plenty of time, farmers are facing another complex season. It is too early for domestic prices to react, but they will certainly add a risk premium if the weather remains unsettled in the coming weeks.
- 1 October 2024
- 9:11
Russian 🇷🇺 winter wheat planting at risk.
Russian wheat sowing conditions are very dry. We are now approaching the end of the season for Central and Volga regions representing 41% of the total production. The Southern region can still plant until the end of October. Rains need to arrive fast now, otherwise the current risk premium could well rise further! For now, there is still very little rain in the radar until the 11th of October.
- 3 September 2024
- 16:41
Dry start for the Russian 🇷🇺 winter wheat planting season.
The Russian winter wheat planting season starts in August and ends at the end of September. It has been very dry this season and there is still no rain in the radar. September/October precipitations in this part of the Black Sea (including a large part of Ukraine) will be something markets will keep an eye on.
- 30 August 2024
- 6:09
Adverse Black Sea 🇺🇦🇷🇺 weather conditions for spring crops.
Wheat in Siberia and North Kazakhstan needs dry weather as it is ready for harvest. They are having very wet conditions. Corn, soya and SF in Western Russia and Ukraine need rains, they are having very hot and dry conditions. Weather conditions are clearly not favorable for Black Sea crops. It is one of the elements of support for prices to rebound.
- 8 August 2024
- 10:42
Rapeseed 🇪🇺 prices recover from the recent 10% drop.
Rapeseed prices rebounded well on the €450 long-term support. OSR prices are very sensitive to energy markets. Last week, crude oil lost 14% in just 3 days amid recession talks. They recovered 6% already from recent lows and rapeseed prices are following the trend. We continue to consider that $70/brl is a very strong floor for crude oil. Indeed, the OPEC made it very clear that they would cut their production is prices were to reach this level. Current prices are now back above $75. Rapeseed prices will probably continue to trade between €450 and €500. The high of the range is a selling target, equivalent to £400/T ex-farm.
- 24 July 2024
- 8:18
Russian 🇷🇺 harvest moving very fast but wheat yields are roughly 10% lower yoy.
The Russian grain harvest is moving much faster than last year. Farmers have already harvested 13.7Mha compared to 5.5Mha a year earlier. The gross wheat harvest is estimated at 40.7MT, which is 26.2MT more than last year. Wheat has already been harvested from 11.4Mha versus 3.7Mha at the same period last year! Average wheat yields are down 10%, from 3.9T/HA in 2023 to 3.5T/HA now. With more than half of the wheat harvested, we can confirm that the production will be down by 8 to 9MT. Quality seems to be also poorer. However, the fast harvest has triggered more pressure on prices at this early stage of the season.
- 12 July 2024
- 19:37
US 🇺🇸 wheat back on the world trade competition?
One of the main story for the wheat market this season is the resurgence of US exports in the world trade. Indeed, the US will produce the highest crop in 7 years and some 5MT more than last year. This surplus will have to reach new destinations such as North Africa, where we have not seen US competition for a while! The US wheat crop size is thus bearish for our markets too!
Weekly market editorial View all
Are we about to face a new world wheat supply shortage?
Wheat traders are nervous. On top of current weather and geopolitical risks, soon Russia could partially restrict exports and is now directly targeting grain ships in Odesa! In this context prices are going up. Let’s review the situation with the intent to build a short-term wheat market scenario…
Read moreEvents & Training
ODA POST-HARVEST MEETING
CAN PRICES MOVE HIGHER?
ON ZOOM, FOR UK FARMERS
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RegisterLiffe Feed Wheat 
| unk1 | Contract | Month | Last | unk2 | unk3 | Chg | Open | High | Low | Volume | OpenInt | Exchange | Date | Time | Title | File |
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Nov '24 | 189.25 | 189.25 | +0.05 | 189.45 | 190.00 | 188.05 | 239 | 2140 | ICE | 11/10/2024 | 18:15:31 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Jan '25 | 194.10s | 194.10 | s | +0.95 | 194.10 | 194.10 | 194.10 | ICE | 11/10/2024 | 18:15:31 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Mar '25 | 199.00s | 199.00 | s | +1.15 | 0.00 | 199.00 | 199.00 | ICE | 11/10/2024 | 18:15:31 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | May '25 | 203.75 | 203.75 | -0.10 | 204.20 | 204.40 | 203.40 | 92 | 5189 | ICE | 11/10/2024 | 18:15:31 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Jul '25 | 208.70s | 208.70 | s | +1.45 | 0.00 | 208.70 | 208.70 | ICE | 11/10/2024 | 18:15:31 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Nov '25 | 202.00 | 202.00 | -0.20 | 202.00 | 202.00 | 202.00 | 10 | 1748 | ICE | 11/10/2024 | 18:15:31 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Jan '26 | 204.70s | 204.70 | s | +1.45 | 0.00 | 204.70 | 204.70 | ICE | 11/10/2024 | 18:15:31 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Mar '26 | 207.20s | 207.20 | s | +1.45 | 0.00 | 207.20 | 207.20 | ICE | 11/10/2024 | 18:15:31 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
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