ODA Market Alert: Strong global export demand, reduced Russia supplies drive wheat prices to historically high levels.

After having recently been a follower to corn and soya price direction, the wheat market is finding its own story. With an export tax starting next month and rising to €50 in March, alongside ideas of a potential floating tax for new crop exports, we can only anticipate Russian 🇷🇺 exports will fall from their 4 to 5Mt pre-Xmas monthly pace to maybe only 1 to 2Mt now. This situation is adding pressure on other origins such as EU 🇪🇺 exports. But these are insufficient to fully compensate. We can only consider it as bullish in the short term, but we also need to take into consideration that wheat stocks in Russia remain ample and she can still review her trade policy before the end of the current season. Buoyant short term situation, particularly for old crop positions.