Having digested the Russian export tax impact on exports, markets are consolidating.

Prices seem to have found a balance, for now, between tighter supplies on the old crop and higher production prospects for the new crop. With La Nina confirmed to have peacked in January, weather conditions could improve in the S. American key production areas. And we are now just a few weeks away from the US spring cropping start, which acreage is set to be record. As we get closer to next harvest, traders will focus more on 2021/22 fundamentals. In that context, the spring growing conditions will be watched for very closely and prices will remain extra sensitive to any risks. We can expect prices to remain volatile and a short term consolidation is likely. Interesting times ahead!