Market Alerts
- 14 May 2024
- 6:49
Why can late frost in Russia 🇷🇺 and wet conditions in France 🇫🇷 damage crops?
Temperatures in Russia went down to -3/-5°C only. Normally, it should not have damaged the crop, but wheat was apparently at meiosis stage already. Thus why the market is getting worried. For now, local analyst are downgrading the wheat crop to 86MT, down from 94MT a few weeks ago. Some rains are in the forecast for this week in the South of Russia. It should relieve the situation. We are also worried by the continuous wet conditions in France (and part of the UK). France should be globally wet for another 10 days! There should be a lot of disease pressure and wheat is about to start flowering. Dry, warm and sunny conditions are now needed, otherwise yield and quality will be at risk! Markets are worried, prices are moving up.
- 10 May 2024
- 11:53
Parts of Southern Australia 🇦🇮 are too dry, impacting planted area.
With current poor weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere, markets could be more dependent to Southern Hemisphere crops in 2024/25. It is true for wheat and for OSR. However, weather conditions have also been adverse in Australia. The Australian grain industry group (GIWA) expects planted acres in country to decline by 5% due to persistent dry conditions. They say that “producers are holding back planting area due to dry conditions & it is close to being too late to plant more…”. This is one of the reason why OSR and wheat prices continue to rise in Europe.
- 6 May 2024
- 16:45
Price rally continues this week amid materializing risks!
EU and CBOT futures are, again, strongly up today. OSR, wheat, corn are all trading at season’s high and are reaching key technical resistances. The latest weather forecast did not bring any relief for Russian wheat (too dry), US planting (too wet), Br Corn (too dry), Br Soya (floods in Rio Grande do Sul that could lead to min 4MT loss). On top of that, here in Argentina, the corn production is now seen at only 46MT (13MT less than just a few weeks ago). This, in a context where France and UK will probably produce a very poor crop!! We will continue to watch these markets and soon act on strategies. Our objective is to sell in these rising markets, step by step, and secure these profitable levels...
- 2 May 2024
- 13:47
OSR prices continue their way up despite lower crude and vegetable oils.
What is going on with OSR? Crude oil prices went down 3% yesterday amid cease fire talks in Israel. Soybean oil is trading at season low. And OSR prices are trading at 7-month highs. Europe will crush 25.5MT of OSR in 2024 and produce probably 18MT (or less). Our import needs will thus rise to a record level of 7.5MT, of which 3MT could be imported from Ukraine and 4.5MT from Canada and Australia. The recent frost on flowering rapeseed plants in Europe has probably damaged the yield potential. This could increase further our import needs. Thus why OSR prices are going up despite adverse outside market conditions.
- 11 April 2024
- 6:30
Argentina’s 🇦🇷 grain exchange slashes its forecast for the 2023/24 corn harvest to 50.5MT from a record 57MT just a month ago (USDA at 56MT).
This is the largest cut in history within just a month (-11%). It is due to an unprecedented spiroplasma disease carried by leafhoppers. ODA is currently carrying a crop tour (starting next week) in Argentina and we will keep you updated on the matter. The USDA and CONAB reports will be released today with possible production cuts in Brazil too. Meanwhile, US farmers have planted 5% of the expected corn area, enjoying favorable weather. Are these cuts already priced in? Probably not and a lot will now depend on US planting conditions… Risk is on the rise!
- 28 March 2024
- 17:11
Wheat & Corn strongly up after bullish USDA report.
Half an hour after the report, CBOT corn is now up 5% amid lower than expected planting intentions (-4.6Ma vs 2023). Wheat is following the trend although the report was more neutral for this crop. Furthermore, ahead of a long week-end, an escalating situation in Ukraine and some weather risks for the winter Russian wheat crop, Funds are massively buying back their short positions. Following this report, markets will now focus on weather risks as the planting season is about to start in the US. We shall expect a very strong volatility providing selling opportunities. We wish you a happy Easter!!🔔
- 21 March 2024
- 9:04
Funds short-covering MATIF OSR
Even if Funds have clearly started to cover their short positions, they remain at record levels. At such, if risks continue to rise in the coming weeks, the impact of Funds covering their sales could accelerate the strength of prices rebound. For instance, on MATIF OSR markets, Funds have bought back 30k contracts in the past 2 weeks, equivalent to 1.5MT!! They are still holding a -13k contracts short position, equivalent to 750KT. A big move, leading to a strong rebound!
- 20 March 2024
- 6:33
Weather concerns over Russian 🇷🇺 winter wheat.
The next 2 weeks will be without rain for the winter wheat area in Russia. This is adding to many other weather watch points in Brazil (too wet for soya harvest, too dry for corn), in Western Europe (too wet for spring planting) and in the US (72% of the Midwest is abnormally dry). As a result, a risk premium is being added to ag prices and Funds are starting to buy back their massive short positions. To be continued….
Weekly market editorial View all
RISK IS ON, VOLATILITY IS BACK!
Interesting times for markets. The price rebound was very impressive in the past 2 weeks. Especially for wheat, and all EU commodities benefited from rising risks. Is it the end of the bearish market? We will focus here on the multiple supportive risks that could indeed change the market story.
Read moreEvents & Training
ODA MARKET CONFERENCE
A SHORT-TERM REBOUND OR A LONGER-TERM CHANGE OF TREND?
ON ZOOM, FOR UK FARMERS
🇬🇧
RegisterLiffe Feed Wheat 
| unk1 | Contract | Month | Last | unk2 | unk3 | Chg | Open | High | Low | Volume | OpenInt | Exchange | Date | Time | Title | File |
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | May '24 | 187.25s | 187.25 | s | -0.05 | N/A | N/A | 38 | ICE | 15/05/2023 | 18:15:39 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Jul '24 | 196.65s | 196.65 | s | -0.05 | N/A | N/A | 30 | ICE | 15/05/2023 | 18:15:39 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | ||
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Nov '24 | 217.95s | 217.95 | s | -0.05 | 218.95 | 221.85 | 216.00 | 533 | 6338 | ICE | 15/05/2023 | 18:15:39 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Jan '25 | 220.30s | 220.30 | s | +0.40 | N/A | 220.30 | ICE | 15/05/2023 | 18:15:39 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |||
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Mar '25 | 222.65s | 222.65 | s | +0.35 | N/A | 222.65 | ICE | 15/05/2023 | 18:15:39 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |||
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | May '25 | 224.95s | 224.95 | s | +0.25 | 227.80 | 229.00 | 223.00 | 105 | 1072 | ICE | 15/05/2023 | 18:15:39 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Jul '25 | 224.80s | 224.80 | s | +0.25 | N/A | 224.80 | ICE | 15/05/2023 | 18:15:39 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT | |||
| t-ice | LONDON WHEAT | Nov '25 | 211.00s | 211.00 | s | +0.60 | 210.00 | 211.00 | 210.00 | 10 | ICE | 15/05/2023 | 18:15:39 | LONDON FEED WHEAT | LONDON_FEED_WHEAT |
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